Atzerapen Handia gurekin dago, oraindik

(i) Sarrera: galdutako outputa

Cost in lost output so far could be more than $13 trillion², estimates John Silvia of Wells Fargo

1 Ikus http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-great-recession-is-still-with-us-top-forecaster-says-2017-02-11?mod=cx_picks_pol&cx_navSource=cx_picks_pol&cx_tag=other&cx_artPos=7#cxrecs_s.

2 Trilioi amerikat bat = bilioi europar bat.

3 Ingeesez: “It’s been 10 years now since the credit bubble began to unravel, and we’re still struggling to recover from the Great Recession that resulted from that collapse. John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Economics and the winner of MarketWatch’s Forecaster of the Month contest for January, says that in important ways we’ll never really recover.”

4 Ingelesez: “The Great Recession permanently altered the economy of the United States, Silvia and his colleagues argue in a new research paper: We are much poorer than we would be if the recession hadn’t happened. How much poorer? By one estimate, U.S. real gross domestic product has been nearly 10% lower, on average, for each of the past nine years, Silvia says, which means that (by my calculations) we’ve lost about $13.6 trillion in output.

Real disposable incomes are about $11 trillion lower over those nine years, amounting to a loss of more than $35,000 per person. That’s the equivalent of everyone in America getting laid off for 11 months.“

5 Ingelesez: “Professor Richard Thaler, an expert in behavioral economics, talked to MarketWatch about his ‘lazy’ investing strategy that allows investors to maximize their returns while doing very little.

It also means we’ve lost tens of millions of jobs, and hundreds of billions of dollars of investment. It’s permanently altered the character of the labor market. [Bilioia amerikar bat = mila milioi europar]

For those between 25 and 55, job loss has been the biggest challenge. “About a quarter of them will never make it up because they have a lower earning trajectory,” Silvia said. The permanent loss of income for the middle class and the lower middle class has led to a lot of “political frustration,” he said with a lot of understatement.”

6 Ingelesez: “For millennials, the Great Recession has forced a re-evaluation of lives and their place in the economy. They know they’ll never have a real job unless they have a college credential, so millions are doing what it takes, including taking on massive debt, to get there. Most have downsized their expectations about consumption, Silvia said.

Silvia’s co-authors on this paper are also key members of his economics team at Wells Fargo: Azhar Iqbal and Sam Bullard. The other members of the team that collectively produced the winning forecasts in January are Mark Vitner, Jay Bryson, Anika Khan, Tim Quinlan, Michael Brown, and Sarah House.”

7 Ingelesez: “In January contest, Silvia’s team had the most accurate forecasts out of 48 teams on three of the 11 indicators we track: the consumer price index, consumer confidence index and the trade deficit. On three other indicators, their forecasts were among the 10 most accurate.

The runners up in the January contest were Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics, Jim O’Sullivan of High Frequency Economics, Spencer Staples of EconAlpha and Stephen Stanley of Amherst Pierpont Securities.

The forecasts we publish in our Economic Calendar are the median forecasts of the 15 forecasting teams that have done the best in our contest over the preceding 12 months, plus the forecast of the most recent winner of the Forecaster of the Month. Our enhanced consensus is much more accurate than the Bloomberg consensus that’s widely followed.

The economists in our consensus forecast are: Jim O’Sullivan of High Frequency Economics, Spencer Staples of EconAlpha, Ryan Sweet of Moody’s Analytics, Sam Coffin at UBS, Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro Economics, independent forecaster Brian Jones, Avery Shenfeld’s team at CIBC, Stephen Stanley of Amherst Pierpont Securities, Brittany Baumann and Robert Both at TD Securities, Stu Hoffman’s team at PNC, James Sweeney’s team at Credit Suisse, John Silvia’s team at Wells Fargo, Christophe Barraud at Market Securities, Paul Ashworth at Capital Economics, and Jan Hatzius’s team at Goldman Sachs.”