Italia: lidergoa erakusteko tenorea

Albistea: Bill Mitchell-en Italy’s time to demonstrate leadership1.

The Washintong Post delakoan argitaratutako artikulu bat, Why Italy is the most likely country to leave the euro, aitzakiatzat harturik, Mitchell Greziaz, Troikaz eta Italiaz aritu da.

Hona hemen ukitutako punturik garrantzitsuenak:

1) Italia bezalako ekonomia batek eurogunean lidergoa erakutsi behar du2

2) Euroguneko datu ekonomiko kezkagarriak3

3) Italiako datuak4

The Washington Post-ek honelako galdera egin zuen:

What do you call a country that has grown 4.6 per cent – in total – since it joined the euro 16 years ago? Well, probably the one most likely to leave the common currency. Or Italy, for short.”

Mitchell-en iritziz, hori baino txarragoa da:

4) Italiako datuak, benetakoak5

Italy_Real_Growth_1980_2014

5) Ondorio garbia: “… this currency arrangement does not work for their economy.”

The Washington Post-en iritziz,

But, at the same time, Italy had these problems even before it had the euro, and it still managed to grow back then. So part of the problem is the euro itself. It’s too expensive for Italian exporters, and too restrictive for the government that’s had to cut its budget even more than it otherwise would have.“

Mitchell-ek, alta, honela dio:

6) Afera euroa da eta irtenbidea Grexit6

Grezia dela eta, The Washington Post-en arabera,

“… more than anything else, the common currency has given Europe a severe case of cognitive dissonance. People hate austerity, but they love the euro even more – they have an emotional attachment to everything it stands for.

The problem, though, is that the euro is the reason they have to slash their budgets so much in the first place. So anti-austerity parties have felt like they have to promise the impossible if they want any hope of gaining power: that they can end the budget cuts without ending the country’s euro membership. “

Eta hauxe dio Mitchell-ek:

That was Syriza’s dilemma. It was on a ‘hiding to nothing’ from day one because it refused to show leadership and explore the advantages of exit. It fell too easily into the mantra that it would be catastrophic.”

Izan ere,

7) Eurogunean egoteak esanahia garbia du7

8) Syrizaren porrota8

The Washinton Post-en arabera,

9) Italian dago esperantza9

10) Five Star Movement delakoa10

Mitchell-en arabera, Italian,

Sooner or later the dogmatists in Brussels will have to call Italy to account under the Excessive Deficit Mechanism rules. Then the fun might begin.”

Eta honela bukatzen du ekonomialari australiarrak:

11) Italian ulermen hobea dago11

12) Gomendioa: lan bermea12

Gogoratu Mosler-en proposamena Italiarako13.

Halaber, gogoratu ondoko hau:

“… both the left and the right as well as economists and policymakers across the political spectrum fail to recognize that money is a public monopoly

(Randall Wray, 2011)

Baina gure lotsarako, hauxe ere kontuan hartzekoa da: Hurrengo espainiar hauteskundeei begira, Euskal Herrian indar ezkertiar eta independentista bat behar dugu, ez progreen arteko inongo porrusaldatxo sasi ezkertiar eta oso espainiar.


2 Ingelesez: “… a large economy such as Italy should demonstrate leadership in the Eurozone and pave the way for the weaker nations to restore their own growth. We would not have witnessed the torturous brutality that was dealt out to Greece recently if the Troika were dealing with Italy. The question is whether Italy is likely to provide that leadership.

3 Ingelesez: “On July 22, 2015, Eurostat released the latest government debt data for the Eurozone which showed that – Government debt rose to 92.9% of GDP in euro areawhich, of course is well above the 60 per cent threshold allowed for by the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). In the last 12 months “fourteen Member States registered an increase in their debt to GDP ratio at the end of the first quarter of 2015, twelve a decrease and in Estonia there was no change.” In the last quarter, fifteen states increased their debt ratios.”

4 Ingelesez: “… Italy has the second-large public debt ratio (at 135.1 per cent) and is among the nations with the largest increases. On the numbers, Italy is being left behind, stuck in recession with high unemployment and a rising public debt ratio which will surely bring it into conflict with the Excessive Deficit Mechanism before too long. Unemployment in Italy remains at 12.4 per cent down ever so slightly on the 12.6 per cent a year ago. Youth unemployment (15-24 year olds) remains at the elevated level of 41.5 per cent.

5 Ingelesez: “The following graph (taken from annual IMF WEO data) shows the average real GDP growth rates per annum for the 1980s, 1990s, 2000-14 and since 2008 (blue bars) and the same metric for real per capita income.

The results are stark as they are disastrous. It has barely grown on average in any year during its period inside the Recession Cult of the Eurozone and real per capita income has fallen on average each year by around 0.44 per cent.

Since 2008, the deterioration has been nothing short of sensational relative to Italy’s long history of recorded data.

6 Ingelesez: “Part of the problem is the euro itself. How much a part? I assert almost 100 per cent. If Italy abandoned the euro and restored its currency sovereignty, expanded the fiscal deficit to stimulate domestic demand and allowed the exchange rate to float it would return to the growth rates of the 1990s fairly soon.”

7 Ingelesez: “But membership of the Euro, with its recession-biased fiscal rules, means that the Member States will always be limited in their capacity to protect national income and employment, unless there is a sudden export boom (such as in Ireland at present). That is not a solution that can work for all nations.

8 Ingelesez: “Syriza collapsed back into become the next in a line of governments dealing out vicious austerity because they refused to consider exit.

9 Ingelesez, “The Washington Post article holds out more hope for Italy because its “anti-austerity parties have learned the opposite lesson. Don’t rule out leaving the euro, or things will never get better for you”.

10 Ingelesez: “In Italy, “the Five Star Movement, has gone from being a vague euro-skeptic to an outspoken one” and its leader is reported to have said that Syriza’s “refusal to exit the euro was his death sentence”.

11 Ingelesez: “I suspect, the Italians have a better understanding of their place in Europe than Greece and won’t fall for any threats that they will be expelled from Europe.

12 Ingelesez: “I would recommend that Italy take the initiative and ignore the fiscal rules and introduce some large public spending programs – like Job Guarantee – to get the economy moving.

Iruzkinak (3)

  • joseba

    Epe luzeko langabezia eurogunean:

    Long-term unemployment behaviour reflects austerity bias in Eurozone

    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=31478#more-31478

    The Economist says that the recent “euro-area unemployment figures, released on July 31st … show the overall unemployment rate has crept down to 11.1% from its peak of 12.1% in April 2013 … [but] … another problem in the form of long-term unemployment (generally defined as being out of work for over 12 months) has emerged … Of the 19m jobless Europeans, more than half have not worked for the last year. And over 15% have not had a job for more than four years.”
    (…)
    Once you examine the dynamics of the data you quickly realise that short-term unemployment rates do not behave differently to long-term unemployment rates. (…)
    The relationship between long-term unemployment and the unemployment rate is very close.
    As unemployment rises (falls), the proportion of long-term unemployment in total unemployment rises (falls) with a lag. Several studies have formally examined this relationship. My earlier work has found that a rising proportion of long-term unemployed is not a separate problem from that of the general rise in unemployment.
    (…)
    This casts doubt on the supply-side policy emphasis that OECD governments have adopted over the last two decades.
    While the mainstream economics profession may claim search effectiveness declines and this contributes to rising unemployment rates, the overwhelming evidence is that both are caused by insufficient aggregate spending in the economy.
    The policy response then is entirely different and supports fiscal stimulus measures being used to create jobs growth.
    So while the mainstream economics profession may claim search effectiveness declines and this contributes to rising unemployment rates, the overwhelming evidence is that both are caused by insufficient demand. The policy response then is entirely different.
    Please read Long-term unemployment – stats and myths.
    (…)
    Mass unemployment reflects a failure of aggregate spending, which suggests that the fiscal deficit is always too low given the spending decisions of the non-government sector.”

Utzi erantzuna

Zure e-posta helbidea ez da argitaratuko. Beharrezko eremuak * markatuta daude